The Worst Possible Brexit

Why would the worst possible Brexit be of the slightest interest? Well, possibly because, on our politicians’ track record to date, the fact it’s the worst makes it the most likely to be inflicted.

It seems probable that Brexit with no deal will be ruled out. The Prime Minister’s deal has been soundly rejected by parliament. So they will most probably be driven to request an extension of Article 50 to give more time to come up with an alternative plan. But Slovenia, Greece or possibly Cyprus, will reject UK’s application because, for some curious reason, they want UK to remain in the EU. So UK is then forced to revoke Article 50 in its entirety, thus remaining as EU members.

So the Remainers will have won? Not quite.

Our EU membership will not be as it was before all this nonsense was started off by David Cameron and George Osborne. The current air of uncertainty will persist. Companies operating in UK as a member of the EU – eg the UK motor industry – are unlikely to have much confidence in our continued membership and their future investment decisions will be shaped accordingly. And, having messed the EU around for the best part of 3 years, the UK (and possibly Cyprus) are unlikely to be the most influential leaders of much needed EU reform.

But what will happen in the UK? Perhaps the current minority government will decide its time is up and call a general election. That will be won by one of the two main parties who will then most likely form a minority government committed to fulfilling the expressed will of the British people ie Brexit.

The Liberal Democrats might previously have made some contribution to debate if not having much influence over events. They would at least have offered an alternative perspective for consideration. But they appear to have lost the will to survive.

So, the UK will be back where it began. Apparently unwilling, and now increasingly unwelcome, members of the EU, with the 2016 expressed will of the British people echoing down the Westminster corridors, possibly being repeated, embarking on another three years of Brexit paralysis, led by who of the likely contenders?

That seems the worst possible Brexit, as well as being entirely feasible.

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