Category Archives: Political Decision

The Lesson of Southern Cross

(Originally posted 10.6.2011)On 1st September, 1976, Professor Milton Friedman of Chicago University, economic theoretician and Nobel laureate, addressed the Institute of Economic Affairs in London. The title of his talk was “The Road to Economic Freedom: The Steps from Here to There”. Friedman, being the quintessential free market fundamentalist, took a dim view of the mixed British economy with around 60% of national income then being spent by government. He prescribed the ‘shock treatment’ of low flat rate taxes and wholesale privatisation which a few years later Margaret Thatcher implemented.

His justification for privatising provision of education and healthcare was simplistic in the extreme. ‘There is,’ he argued, ‘a sort of empirical generalisation that it costs the state twice as much to do anything as it costs private enterprise, whatever it is.’ Friedman didn’t actually have any data to support this contention, but added that ‘My son once called my attention to this generalisation, and it is amazing how accurate it is’ (See Friedman, M, 1977, From Galbraith to Economic Freedom, London: Institute of Economic Affairs, p57).
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Change is in the Air

There seems to be a fresh realisation that people do not necessarily have to put up with the tyranny of authoritarian regimes, despite the apparent demonstrations of power by those who dictate their lives. Thus: Tunisia and Egypt. Thus perhaps, with blood and violence: Libya and Syria, with Bahrein and Yemen in the rear, signalling to the Saudis that change is circling the airspace near them. But the Arab Spring may only be a small part of the story.

Authoritarian rule of the many by a privileged few, is not restricted to primitive dictatorships. The anger of their populations is shared by those in the democratic, “free” West. People are on the streets in Greece and Spain where the talk is of revolution. The aims remain incoherent because the annoyances are so widespread, but the anger is palpable. And it appears to be growing through the EU, even though their governments have all been democratically elected.
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The Big One is Coming

Two brothers. One got a real job and lived modestly at home with his parents. The other got the gambling bug and got clever at it. He found all sorts of obscure forms of gambling and developed sophisticated new techniques and methods and made a lot of money and lived a wild lifestyle. Till he lost it all and more, much more. And had to go to his father and plead to be bailed out. The amount was more than his father could afford. So he started to charge the working brother for his food and accommodation, and explained to his wife that they would have to tighten their belts so as to pay off the son’s huge debts. The brother grumbled but paid up. The important thing was, what did the wife do?

She considered her options. She could just walk away, but she wanted to keep the family together. The really important thing was to make sure it never, ever, happened again. After much thought, she told her husband she would only stay if he made the feckless one stop gambling and made him realise he had been gambling with all their lives. In addition he would have to be made to get a real job like his brother. And he would have to repay all the money that had been spent to bail him out, both to the parents and to his brother. If the husband didn’t agree with all that, she would leave.
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Glencore and their ilk are screwing the world

The system is wrong, not the people. The financial sector is out of control and is screwing the rest of us. We know traders will trade in anything that looks like making a profit. We know they make profits out of rising prices, and falling prices, it’s just a matter of betting correctly. And we know, if they’re big enough, or close enough to one that is, they can start stories going which affect prices and then bet accordingly. Though we might have thought that was illegal. This month the Financial Times has run a series of articles on Glencore showing how they influence commodity prices for their own profit and everyone else’s loss, and how they are expected to increase their stranglehold in key areas.

Glencore, the world’s largest commodity trader, is in the news because its initial public offering of shares to the London Stock Exchange, scheduled for late May, is expected to value the company at between £60 billion and £73 billion, putting it comfortably in the FTSE100 index on its first day of trading. It may be big but the FT reports that Glencore has paid “almost no corporate taxes on its trading business for years in spite of bumper profits.” That may be no surprise since that’s how these financial sector firms are allowed to work, but the way it trades, revealed in relation to Russian wheat and corn, is more interesting.

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Why Don’t We Make the Bankers Pay?

In the United States, Goldman Sachs, hugely profitable out of the financial crisis, still rules the roost. According to Senator Carl Levin, chair of the senate permanent sub-committee on investigations, in the report on Wall Street and the Financial Crisis, it’s a “sordid story” of a “financial snake-pit, rife with greed, conflicts of interest and wrongdoing.” Levin said he would be recommending Goldman executives be referred for criminal prosecution. But that’s barely news. Goldman have paid for their criminality before. In the UK this startling story is hidden away in a few short paragraphs on page 26 of today’s Guardian (15th April). It hardly qualifies as news. Because everybody knows.

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Economy Life Cycles

In 1914 UK owned 45% of the world’s foreign direct investment. America’s peaked at 50% in 1967, but is now less than half that, with the UK nowhere. Today China has just 6% but growing fast. America’s manufacturing productivity gains were in decline since 1970s (2.8% pa), well behind Germany (5.4%) and Japan (8.2%). American R&D expenditures in absolute decline. In relative terms the America’s real economy is following UK into absolute decline.

In a forthcoming book – ‘The Road to Co-operation: Escaping the Bottom Line’ – these various economies are identified as on different positions of the economy life cycle: UK and US being post-industrial, Japan and Germany, industrial, and China and India, industrialising. But what does post-industrial mean?

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Capitalism without bankruptcy: too big to fail

Industrialisation is what fired capitalism. Prior to that most capital was held in the form of land and buildings with not a lot of spare cash lying around waiting to be invested. Nor any pressing need for it. But when industrialisation began in the eighteenth century, it required major infrastructural investment in things such as canals, turnpike roads and subsequently railways. These huge projects took years before producing any return and the sums required were way beyond the capacity of wealthy individuals. Dispersed shareholding and large scale credit finance were brought into existence to enable the massive capital investments of industrialisation.

Contributory sums from large numbers of relatively small investors were multiplied by the bankers new found capacity for lending a proportion of deposits lodged with them for safe keeping. Even Marx acknowledged the ‘capitalistic system’ worked, having ‘created more massive and more colossal productive forces than have all preceding generations together.’ That was years before joint stock companies were allowed to provide the luxury of limited liability to their shareholders. When Marx was working on the Communist Manifesto, shareholders responsibility for their companies was total. If the company went bankrupt, they were liable for its debts and would in all probability go bankrupt with it. The possibility of bankruptcy was what gave the ‘capitalistic system’ its edge. As widely asserted, capitalism without bankruptcy is like religion without hell.
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Osborne’s Wasted Opportunity

In the context of UK’s indebtedness, it might seem that any morsels in the new budget to benefit the real economy, for start-ups, small businesses, for technology and innovation, should be thankfully received. But the real opportunity, the one the now toothless Vince Cable made so much noise about, has been totally ignored. For the financial sector, it really is business as usual. Its rape of the real economy can continue for another year at least without fear of interference.
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Is Japan’s Misfortune the Real Tipping Point?

From time to time the real world where people eat, drink, sleep and have their being, is impacted by the very unreal financial world of speculative markets, and invariably to its huge disadvantage. The bursting bubble of 2007-8 was one such example, which some hoped might be a tipping point, leading to a more civilised future. But not just yet. Now, the speculating elements are picking over the humanitarian disaster unfolding in Japan, to seize the chance of a quick profit. And there is still no sign the ‘madmen in authority’ have the stomach for making any fundamental change. The real world will continue its devastation.

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Restoring Enterprise by Burying Dogma

The almost universal acceptance of neoclassical economic theory, at least in Britain and the United States, has resulted in much destruction of professional management practice. The so simplistic dogma leads to a set of mindless clichés which have not only severely damaged enterprise management practice, but, also the wider management of the real economy, as has been seen over the past two years.

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