Category Archives: Banking

Grasping the Nettle Now

So President Francois Hollande has not given up on his election promise to levy a 75% tax on those who pay themselves, or get paid, in excess of €1m (£840,000) pa. The French high court rejected his original proposal, but it seems the revised version, to levy the tax on the payers rather than the recipients, may well prevail. The promise is that it will only be for two years, but Pitt said much the same when he introduced the first British income tax to pay for the Napoleonic wars. If it works, it will no doubt stay and perhaps be built upon

Taxing the income of the very high paid at a higher rate than the low paid is part of what made the French vote for Hollande as President. The people want it. They apparently don’t like the idea that the wealthy are sneering contemptuously from their tax avoiding havens at the poor who are being clobbered left, right and centre. And in that respect the French are probably not much different from the Brits. If a British political party were to advocate a 75% tax rate, with no escape, for those earning a million or more, would it gain support from the mass of people?
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The FTSE100 and the UK Economy

Every day, the BBC – in fact the whole media circus – faithfully report the progress of the FTSE100 share index, as though it were a portent of our economic future. Every day so called “experts” explain in detail the reasons for FTSE100 movements seemingly on the assumption that it still relates to the UK economy. But recently some mystification has been expressed over how, when the UK economy is doing so badly – resolutely refusing to respond to the inspirational George Osborne, even losing its triple A rating – yet the FTSE100 is doing so well, already up 8% this year following 5.8% rise last year, threatening to follow the Dow to hit an all-time high. There is a definite disconnect between FTSE100 share values and the real economy. Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King’s enthusiasm for quantitative easing only further emphasises that disconnect, boosting share values but having no effect at all on the real economy and jobs.

The FTSE index no longer reflects expectations about the UK economy. So what does it reflect? There must presumably be some connection between share prices and expectations of future gains. But those future profits no longer relate to what’s going on in the UK. The FTSE has become a global index, comprising companies like the dreaded Glencore, Anglo American, Serco, Xstrata, and like global companies. Oil and gas and pharmaceuticals account for nearly 30% of the FTSE’s value. Basic resources (mining), banks and financial services make up another 30+%. And an increasing number of foreign companies find a London quotation beneficial, such as the recent Russian additions, steelmaker Evraz and gold and silver producer Polymetal International. Around two thirds of FTSE100 companies have limited relevance to the real UK economy.
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Glencore, PwC and Horsemeat

Back in July last year, this site pondered what would replace the public company, formerly the most powerful institution in the economy (see http://www.gordonpearson.co.uk/11/what-will-replace-the-public-company/). Its numbers had halved over the past decade and the number of small and medium sized firms’ initial public offerings had declined by more than 80%. Shareholders’ funds appeared to be no longer of much worth to the public company, the flow of money having been reversed so that shareholders, and indeed the whole financial sector, were now taking rather than investing, Nevertheless, media interest in the FTSE100 and other stock market indices continues unabated, even though they only measure betting activity on such as M&A rather than real new investment. A posting last month offered a reasoned explanation of how democratic capitalism, which had delivered so much and promised so much more, appeared now to be approaching the buffers – http://www.gordonpearson.co.uk/20/democratic-capitalism/.

The still dominant Friedmanite version of capitalism is now being seen to self-destruct with its array of naïve beliefs and illegality. Company law (eg Companies Act 2006) charges company directors, Friedman’s ‘corporate officials’, with the legal duty of looking after the best interests of the company having regard to the long term and to the interests of all stakeholders. Friedman argued they had no other duty than to make as much money as possible for shareholders. Friedman clearly won hands down against the law, and that despite the fact that ‘corporate officials’ have legal contracts of service and employment with the company, not its shareholders, and those contracts invariably charge them with the duty of looking after the company’s best interests.
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Lessons for Advanced Economies from 2012

Advanced economies everywhere seem to be led by politicians who are media competent but practically inexperienced. They seem not to have learned anything from the experiences of the past year, only yearning for a return to business as usual. But there are vital lessons and changes need to be made.

Recession: The much talked of double-dip morphed into talk of triple-dip and the lost decade, and, eventually in 2012, to the previously unthinkable notion that GDP growth might be a thing of the past for advanced economies. Systems thinkers warned of the classic systems life cycle characteristics which accompany permanent change from one phase (eg maturity) to the next (eg decline): for the first several time periods, the idea of permanent change is never accepted – ‘it’s a blip’, ‘a double dip’ – until the permanency of change is absolutely undeniable. By which time most opportunities for improvement have been lost. This scenario seems ever more probable, given the increasingly apparent limitations on earth’s capacities and the ever increasing demands placed upon it.
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UK PLC For Sale

Sir Nigel Rudd is in the news again for selling off some more of UK Plc to foreign competitors. This time he has disposed of the hi-tech railway signalling and control equipment business of Invensys for £1.7bn to German competitor Siemens, recipient of the government’s £1.4bn Thameslink rail contract, in preference to Derby based Bombardier.

Rudd has himself been mentioned a couple of times on this site. He was Chairman of Boots the Chemist and oversaw its disposal to a private equity operation, got it saddled with most of the debt raised for its acquisition, and moved its registration to the tax avoiding Swiss canton of Zug (see http://www.gordonpearson.co.uk/11/what-will-replace-the-public-company/). The other mention was as a member of David Cameron’s special advisory committee of ten on economic strategy (see http://www.gordonpearson.co.uk/21/limits-of-economic-advice-to-the-coalition/). He was one of the asset stripping accountants on the committee. Asset stripping is in his blood, his speciality since he started out in 1982 at Williams Holdings. It is curious how our politicos reward such activity with knighthoods and ask such people for their advice.
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The Cure for Monopolistic Exploitation

After the Libor rate fixing scandal, and the PPI mis-selling fiasco, we now have hysteria over gas and electricity companies fixing market prices to their advantage at the expense of the general customer. Well of course they’ve been doing that, it’s what they do. They aren’t charities. They charge whatever the market will bear. That’s how markets work. If the markets were competitive it would be a different story and the customer would reap the benefit. But with the fixable, non-competitive markets which have been allowed to proliferate over the past thirty years, the customer loses out to the supplier. And since the suppliers are driven by the Friedmanite rule that they exist to make as much money as possible for shareholders, it’s the shareholders who really gain at the expense of customers. But since shareholdings are largely controlled by financial intermediaries, investment banks, hedge funds and the like, it is they who are the ultimately winners at the consumer’s expense.

But it’s worse even than that.
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Our future and effective innovation

Will Hutton is courageously idiosyncratic about innovation, proposing a simple combination of general purpose technologies (GPTs) and good capitalism as the explanation for the rapid rise in living standards in the west over the last 250 years. For Hutton, the source of growth is ‘the combination of science’s capacity to transform how we live and a capitalism constantly pushed and prodded by democratic governments towards exploiting those opportunities.’ [See ‘Britain’s future lies in a culture of open and vigorous innovation’, Will Hutton, The Observer, 14 Oct 2012].

However, the massive empirical and theoretical literature on innovation presents quite a different story. Hutton suggests one exemplar GPT was the steam engine. First identified as a possibility in ancient times, drawn up in some detail in late 15th century by Leonardo da Vinci, it wasn’t till late 18th century that the first working engines were built by Thomas Newcomen for pumping water out of Cornish tin mines. Newcomen’s engine was taken several stages further by James Watt, with among other refinements, an external condenser and rotary drive which made it feasible to run the new cotton mill machinery invented by Arkwright, Crompton and the rest which had previously been driven by water power, the whole made more efficient by the greater precision of machining developed at Watt & Boulton’s Soho foundry and powered by coal made economic by the new transport infrastructure provided by canals. The steam engine wasn’t a GPT. It was an important component of a technological revolution, comprising a whole collection of fundamental innovations which, while not all strictly interdependent, tended to feed into and reinforce each other.
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The Culture of Irresponsibility

Just over a year after his arrest, Kweku Adoboli’s case has finally reached court. He is in the dock nominally for fraud and false accounting, but actually for losing his employer, Swiss bank UBS, around $2.3bn. Now at last, Adoboli’s defence lawyers have the opportunity to make his case. Which is: that the bank had turned a blind eye to Adoboli and fellow traders exceeding their risk limits so long as they continued to make money. That was the custom and practice at UBS, as it was at Société Générale when Jérôme Kerviel lost them over $6.5bn, and earlier at Barings when Nick Leeson lost them $1.3bn and their independent existence.

Trading in deliberately opaque securities is not based on detailed analysis of fundamental values for which the banks, having acquired special expertise, might be responsible. Decisions are made fast, on the basis of the trader’s personal conviction. If they get it right they are rewarded for their “talent”, if they get it wrong often enough, as Adoboli did, they are designated “rogues” and risk getting locked up. In an unregulated market, there’s no time for hierarchical control or responsibility to be exercised. If a trader had to get formal approval from on high before closing deals, they would quickly cease to compete. So the banks delegate responsibility to the front line, where the culture of irresponsibility rules. Much as it has among the Libor traders which Barclays and others enjoyed. The only reason there aren’t many more ‘rogue traders’ is because the vast majority of trades are now fully automated, and three quarters of them of the ultra-fast variety. Even if Adoboli isn’t locked up, he and many of his former colleagues are certainly redundant.

Investment banks (and many other intermediaries) have made massive profits out of the deliberately opaque swaps and derivative ‘products’, inevitably and deliberately creating speculative bubbles. While those bubbles are inflating, money is sucked out of the real economy of manufacturing and non-financial services, from which returns are relatively mundane and long term. The economy thus becomes unbalanced while the bubbles inflate, with the real being preyed on by the synthetic. And when the bubbles burst, the real economy suffers massive destruction. Under the current UK regime, it’s the banks which are bailed out at huge cost to the taxpayer, not the manufacturers. So real jobs are laid waste.

The Americans who share the ideology are, for all their wild Tea Party excesses, less naïvely committed to it in practice. Lehman Brothers was allowed to go to the wall, while General Motors was bailed out. Successive UK governments allowed its motor industry, among many others, to go to the wall, while bailing out its dodgy banks.

Investment banking’s culture of irresponsibility has gone viral, far beyond the financial sector. Neoclassical free market ideology dominates important parts of the academic, political and industrial nexus. Conservative Party treasurer, Lord Fink, is apparently not embarrassed to argue that Britain should aim to compete with tax havens so as to create more jobs in the City of London. Nor is he widely regarded as a total buffoon for making such a suggestion that would obviously speed up our race to the bottom, with ever more of UK manufacturing laid waste and the City accommodating ever more of the world’s financial parasites.

It really is time for a change of direction. The first necessary steps to rebalancing the economy are fairly obvious, though as noted a few weeks back, the madmen in authority may be reluctant. See http://www.gordonpearson.co.uk/06/our-madmen-in-authority-the-bullingdon-intellectuals/

The Glencores, Xstratas and Blairs

Almost 18 months ago Glencore first featured on this blog – Glencore and others are screwing the world – a posting which highlighted the predatory nature of financial monsters like Glencore. The Financial Times had reported Glencore’s ability and willingness to fix commodity prices for their own profit and everyone else’s loss and how they were expected to increase their monopolistic stranglehold in key markets. Glencore was in the news at that time because of its imminent initial public offering of shares to the London Stock Exchange which was expected to value the company at between £60 billion and £73 billion and facilitate its further expansion through mergers and acquisitions. The FT also reported how the world’s largest commodity trader had paid “almost no corporate taxes on its trading business for years in spite of bumper profits.”

The FT’s report described how Glencore had exercised their monopolistic power to raise prices in the Russian wheat market for a quick profit, at the expense of those millions already struggling on the breadline. That was revealing of the sort of business Glencore is, and the sort of business practices it was prepared to embrace in order to make its money.
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Our Madmen in Authority: the Bullingdon intellectuals

When J M Keynes used the term ‘madmen in authority’ he was referring to his contemporary equivalents of David Cameron and George Osborne. At the end of last year, though he talked about it incessantly, it was clear that Cameron had limited understanding of the need to rebalance the economy – see http://www.gordonpearson.co.uk/09/mr-cameron-doesn%e2%80%99t-understand/. The real business of making and distributing things for people to use and consume creates real jobs. But Cameron didn’t seem to understand the difference between that real economy and the speculative, bonus driven financial sector. He said he understood, but then always succoured up to his friends in the City.
His lack of understanding, or his duplicity, seems only surpassed by fellow Bullingdon intellectual and purveyor of the greatest budget shambles in living memory, Chancellor George Osborne.

The financial columns have recently suggested full state ownership of RBS was being discussed by senior ministers and treasury officials. It would cost around £5bn. But Osborne was against it. A rational objection was that it would mean taxpayers taking on full responsibility for the bank’s toxic debts, as opposed to the 82% responsibility they already have. But Osborne’s real reason was his dogmatic focus on cleaning RBS ready for sale back to the private sector, even though that won’t happen any time soon. Only Vince Cable has come out publicly in favour of nationalisation so as to boost lending to industry, especially innovative SMEs, in order to get the real economy moving again.
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