All posts by Gordon Pearson

Cameron Fights for the City against the People

British Prime Ministers and their Chancellors are clearly in the pocket of the City of London, as regularly demonstrated by their red faced compliance at the Lord Mayor’s fancy dress functions. The politicians dutifully swear their allegiance. And they mean it, as Cameron recently showed by vetoing the Franco-German proposal for a timorous financial transaction tax. It might have put some friction into the City’s speculative finance machine and offered a chance of slowing it down and ultimately of reducing its size. Like all his predecessors over the past three decades, Cameron would contemplate no such challenge to the City.

That appears to be the only certain position he holds as he attends the EU summit The rest of his pre-Summit statements appear to be incoherent bluster, largely aimed at placating the emerging Tea Party element of his own party. And specifically not aimed at what he himself previously referred to as ‘rebalancing’ the UK economy.
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Tax and Grow

Aside from IQ, what do Fred ‘The Shred’ Goodwin, the Duke of Westminster, the Prince of Wales and dear old Bob Diamond have in common? Well, it’s not absolutely certain, but there’s a strong probability that they pay a lower rate of tax than you do. The interesting thing is ‘why?’ There are two reasons.

There is an elaborate theoretical structure which seeks to justify not taxing the rich. It operates at many different levels. There’s the Tea Partyish argument that tax is Bad. This is because government is Bad. Because government can only stop things happening, get in the way and generally inhibit the entrepreneurial dynamism of people like Fred, the Duke, the Prince, and Bob. Government and all its works should be minimised.
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Talent for being in the Right Place at the Right Time

During the past week the much derided Bob Diamond, CEO of Barclays Bank, has graced the world with both a lecture and an interview with the BBC. Asked about his remuneration, modesty forbad him to admit precise figures, though figures are available. £5.4 million is the number widely quoted for the last year. That’s down from the £15.2m reported in 2007 along with the then accumulated total of £80m (see http://www.gordonpearson.co.uk/11/what-are-they-laughing-about/). Anyway, it’s nothing to do with Bob – his remuneration is decided by a board committee on behalf of shareholders!

Perhaps he is right: precise figures are unimportant. What matters is simply that the mass of people regard such remuneration as an obscenity even in the good times, let alone when so many are finding it impossible to make ends meet. Peter Drucker regarded top remuneration being 20 times the lowest, as the most that could be got away with, if the ‘hatred’, ‘anger’ and ‘contempt’ of ordinary people was to be avoided. Diamond pays himself 600 or 700 times the lowest paid, and appears to completely overlook the fact that the problems confronting the least well off, are in large part, the direct result of the gross incompetence, if not dishonesty, of bankers not unlike himself. Hatred, anger and contempt gets nowhere near it.
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Down the Financial Plug-hole

What could Sir Martin Sorrell possibly want with £7.4m annual income? What could the FTSE350 company directors do with their 49% annual rise? As Adam Smith put it, there are limitations to ‘the size of a man’s stomach’. Of course, he also recognised they might want to satisfy ‘other wants and fancies … Cloathing and lodging, household furniture and … equipage.’ These might include what Thorstein Veblen referred to as ‘conspicuous consumption’, or for the truly inadequate: ‘conspicuous waste’. But Sir Martin Sorrell and his colleagues on the Prime Minister’s advisory committee on economic strategy, such as arch tax avoider Sir Philip Green, would struggle to spend even a small proportion of their income on such. So, according to the current economic orthodoxy – which it has to be admitted is based on some pretty quaint ideas – most of their income will necessarily find its way, as savings, into investment.

Some might get stashed under matresses and some might be spent on works of art, fine wine etc – the sort of things Ricardo noted as being in fixed supply and therefore reasonable stores of value with the potential for speculative gain. But the vast bulk of savings will be deposited with investment banks or other financial institutions where they are lo9oked after by professional fund managers. The orthodoxy assumes, though it is known to be an utterly false assumption, that it will be invested in real firms and real projects, creating jobs for the general population. Thus, even apart from Sir Martin’s claim to be worth 300 or more of his fellow human beings, his extreme high income is justified by its benign impacts for the rest of us. Any argument to the contrary must be motivated by base envy, and not worthy of consideration.
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Making Capitalism Work: some initial steps

The centrally planned socialist alternative has been tried and didn’t work. Even without the bureaucracy and corruption enabled by the communist system, central planning could never be as efficient or effective as a real market. But, as we are currently experiencing, unregulated markets can also lead to disaster. Most of our current trouble lies in the changed role of the financial sector.

When the 18th century canals were built it took on average over seven years from the start of construction to the first revenues being generated, seven years in which huge and not risk-free expense was incurred. Shares, bonds and bank credit were the means of raising the necessary money to get the industrialisation project going. So the financial sector was brought into existence to support the real economy. And it grew in importance, supporting the progress of industrialisation for over two hundred years. But since the 1980s computerisation and deregulation of financial markets, it has been possible to make substantially higher returns from speculation than from the real economy. Consequently the sector no longer supports the real economy with any real enthusiasm. Instead, when it invests in the real economy, more often than not, it does so to extract value, destroying real jobs, purely for its own benefit. It is not just, as Adair Turner once described it “socially useless”, but is actually working against the interests of ordinary people.
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The Real Economy Being Drained Away

The UK government hasn’t yet been able overcome its undergraduate belief in, and commitment to, markets free from government interference as the source of the most effective and efficient way to grow the economy. Unemployment has not yet reached the level, and persisted long enough, for that fundamental belief to be disturbed. But as unemployment grows, fears of further unemployment increase and result in general belt tightening which further reduces the prospects of economic growth. It is therefore only a matter of time before the government is forced to recognise its error.

Till then, and despite having made massive investment in the banking system to avoid Armageddon, the government will refuse to take control of the banks it owns. So, even though paid for by the tax payer, the banks remain free not to support the entrepreneurial businesses on which future employment growth is believed to depend. Any such interference in the free market would be anathema to this Chancellor. So, more quantitative easing, which it should be noted is a pretty fundamental interference, is likely to be effected without direction or control.
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Occupy the City as well as Wall Street

The Occupy Wall Street protest has been described as a deeply instinctive movement to defend America’s traditional values. So far, it has been a peaceful, dignified and respectful, almost wistful, restatement by disparate groups of belief in fairness, individual freedom, democracy, the rule of law and, of course, the social mobility embodied in ‘the American dream’. The protest is against corporate America’s deliberate destruction of those values, through the greed and dishonesty which has been largely justified by theoretical economics.

Demonstrably, the theory doesn’t work. It led directly to the current crisis in which 99% of the population are continuing to pay for the excess of the 1% who caused the problem and who continue to enjoy excess. The bottom 25% are required to shoulder the greatest burden of all, with the bottom 10%, even in the world’s richest economy, being reduced to genuine poverty.

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Matters of Belief

People are, and have always been, able to persuade themselves to believe the weirdest things. If a theory is not testable then it is either rejected or it becomes a matter of belief, which people can be readily persuaded to accept and even proclaim with varying degrees of conviction. Economic theory is by no means unique in this.

A hundred years ago, there being no tv, cinema or even radio, people tended to socialise mostly face to face with real people. And even in godless England, much of that interaction was within the context of the Christian church. Children attended Sunday school, went on Sunday school treats and outings, and in due course were confirmed as church members and regularly attended its services. That was where girls and boys very often met up. In the absence of mass hi-tech entertainments, they joined church youth clubs, played sports for church teams, contributed to church concert parties and drama societies, participating in, and being entertained by, their various amateur productions. As a consequence they were imbued with a set of values which were essentially benign and had some influence over how people behaved to each other. Fairness, honesty and generosity were at the core of those values and were publicly proclaimed, far beyond the church, as the acceptable way to behave. It didn’t mean people believed all the detail the churches promulgated. They didn’t have to. Christian doctrine was a matter for theologians. The mass of people were not overly exercised about the details of belief.

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The Real Rogue Traders

Kweku Adoboli lost some $2.3bn for his employer, Swiss bank UBS. A couple of years ago Jérôme Kerviel lost over $6.5bn for Société Générale, while a dozen years back, Nick Leeson cost Barings $1.3bn and their independent existence. In all, around $10bn of losses were accrued by these three nice young men who were no doubt the pride of their parents. $10bn may seem a lot, but it’s less than a billion a year – a small price to pay for the continued freedom from regulation which enables investment banks to continue their rogue trading, which is hugely profitable for them, even if it costs the rest of us an arm and a leg.

One of the recent articles on Adoboli’s exploits, suggested that banks had failed to learn lessons and had not controlled individual traders effectively. Another suggested that securities had grown in complexity making it difficult to assess the trading risks involved. The internal risk controls within UBS were said to be obviously inadequate. The same was said about Baring’s in its day. But UBS, Société Générale and Barings, seem pretty typical members of the investment banking community. UBS may have differed slightly in requiring its female employees to wear flesh coloured underwear, but otherwise they seem fairly normal. The lack of risk control in investment banking must be endemic.
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Neoclassical Endogenous Growth and a 50% Tax Rate

Former UK Chancellor Alistair Darling’s memoir describes Gordon Brown’s approach as ‘a shambles’. As illustration, the much quoted description of a speech by the former Prime Minister about “neoclassical endogenous growth theory”. Brown started before the speech was fully written, so that part way through delivery, “a hand appeared from behind a curtain and handed him the rest of the speech.” It may sound pretty shambolic, but much more important than that: what was Gordon Brown doing talking about neoclassical endogenous growth theory in the first place? He was shadow chancellor at the time, not some first year economics undergraduate. It’s an example of what Keynes described as the “madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”

In this regard at least, Gordon Brown was far from unique. Politicians, bankers and business people tend to retain a residual belief in the academic ideology they learned at university and business school. When it’s relevant they seem likely to act according to its dictates, and to be eloquent in its defence, no matter how obviously stupid it appears to be. Thus the current debate about retention of the 50% tax rate for those earning over £150,000 pa.
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