The aim of the UN climate change conference in Paris is to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so as to limit the global temperature increase to a maximum of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Only then could this generation lay any claim to having fulfilled its responsibility to bequeath a sustainable planet earth.
Climate summits are notorious for agreeing targets and then not keeping to them. It is not clear how Paris will be any different. There are huge problems in the way of a committed agreement that could produce an effective and lasting solution. Not the least of which is the fact there will be 196 nations attending, all with different histories, cultures, economies and futures.
An example of these ‘local’ difficulties is the Philippines plan to build 23 new coal-fired power stations in response to growing electricity demand, all too frequent power blackouts and the fall in coal prices. They might, with some justification, argue that if developed nations want the Philippines to invest in renewable alternatives, they should contribute the additional cost.
These practical difficulties caused by the differences between different nations are only part of the story. A bigger problem was identified by MacKay in a Comment in the science weekly, Nature. Agreement would require an ‘upward spiral of ambition’ and the ‘science of co-operation’ in order to ‘harness self-interest by aligning it with the common good’. That head-on collision between the maximisation of self-interest and the protection and development of the common good, is the most fundamental of all the myriad of problems in ensuring the sustainability of life on earth. Solve that and the other difficulties could almost certainly be resolved. But achieving MacKay’s alignment will be difficult. It is not immediately clear how maximising self-interest can be aligned with the common good.
Continue reading Budgeting for Climate Change
What does it mean that the NHS is in deficit to the tune of £930m? It’s not a business trying to make a profit for its shareholders – the deficit doesn’t refer to losses. The forecast is that the deficit will be as much as £2.8bn by the end of the financial year next April. But that’s the difference between the actual costs of delivering NHS services, still mostly free at the point of delivery, and the budgeted costs agreed by the Health Secretary for the financial year. It looks like the Health Secretary got the figures badly wrong.
The budget figures are set and NHS Trusts have to work out how such targets can be met. Clearly a major component of costs relate to staff: doctors, nurses and other staff. The only way the budgeted figures could be achieved is to reduce numbers employed. So those cuts are made as a result of the annual budget process. The shadow health secretary quoted a figure of 6,000 nursing posts, for example, as being cut during the last parliament.
Continue reading Saving the NHS
The Friedmanite Neoclassical Economic Belief System (FNEBS) now dominates the developed and developing world. It is taught across the globe in business schools and universities. It is the orthodox wisdom among the Self-Perpetuating Industrial, Financial, Media, Academic and Political Establishment (SPIFMAPE).
The SPIFMAPE is the shadowy presence in our economy which has the real power and resources to ensure its continued dominance. It includes those Industrialists corrupted by the pursuit of wealth, Financiers who pay the £billions of fraud fines as the necessary entry fee, the Media controllers who shape the news to their advantage, Academics who accept ‘research’ income for conformist enquiry and teaching, and those Politicians nurtured within the SPIFMAPE, warmly accepting the FNEBS, otherwise referred to as in the ‘Westminster bubble’.
Those who know the FNEBS appear to really believe in it; and those who don’t know it, accept it as a truth. However, J K Galbraith identified such matters as ‘institutional truths’: that is not a truth at all, but a downright lie that people must buy into if their careers are to progress within their chosen institution.
Continue reading TTIP – Plutocratic Victory
After the 2008 crash the debate was around whether the deficit would be best sorted by cutting public expenditure; or would it be better to stimulate economic activity so as to generate surpluses and jobs, thus reducing necessary benefits payments. In other words: austerity or stimulus?
Despite pouring billions into ‘quantitative easing’ to support the financial sector, the establishment has argued fervently in favour of austerity for the rest of us. That establishment (referred to elsewhere as the self-perpetuating industrial, financial, media, academic and political establishment – the SPIFMAPE) has proved so powerful, it has effectively buried the stimulus word and replaced it with ‘borrowing’. The establishment’s offer is now “Balance the books or borrow?” as Martin Kettle puts it [Guardian, 25.9.15 p39].
But the establishment is wrong. Stimulus is still the most effective option.
Continue reading The Solution to Austerity
Taxpayers are going to have to pay for another big care home operator, throttled by tax avoiding financial predators. According to its chief financial officer, Four Seasons, which runs 450 care homes and 50 specialist care units, ‘is reviewing its finances with all options considered’. One option would be to close down, leaving the taxpayer to pick up responsibility for its 20,000 residents and patients.
Four Seasons is carrying debts of £500million on which it is paying interest of around £50million. It’s not immediately obvious how they got into so much debt nor why they should be paying interest at 10% pa when the official bank rate is 0.5%.
£500million of debt is a popular care home sum. When private equity Blackstone acquired Southern Cross, then leading UK care home operator, it sold the freehold of the care homes, pocketed £500million proceeds, lumbered the care home business with the costs of leasing back their homes, floated the business on the London Stock Exchange and beat a rapid retreat. It took around 5 years before the rental payments bankrupted Southern Cross. Meanwhile Blackstone were able to repeat the predatory exercise with the £500million.
The tax avoiding financial predator that acquired Four Seasons was private equity Terra Firma Capital Partners, owned by Guernsey based Guy Hands. The acquisition was completed a few months after the collapse of Southern Cross had demonstrated how profitable such deals could be.
Continue reading Screwing care homes still makes the easiest money
The media, including the Guardian, report that an independent poll shows the government’s austerity agenda is a vote winner. That conclusion is drawn from responses to a statement that “We must live within our means so cutting the deficit is the top priority.” Agreement was registered by 84% of Tory voters at this year’s election, 63% of UKIP voters, 58% LibDem and even 32% of Labour voters of whom only 34% disagreed. Therefore, the argument is, voters believe austerity is a Good Thing!
Everyone knows from personal experience that living within your means is important to peace of mind since living beyond your means generally has pretty disastrous results. So cutting the deficit is, of course, a top priority. But austerity is not cutting the deficit: it is just one possible way of achieving that end; and a horrendously inefficient one at that.
Continue reading Austerity a Vote Winner!
So the ECB has agreed to raise its limit on emergency loans to Greek lenders by a further €900m over one week. And acting on the assumption Greece will stay in the Euro, the plan was finalized to provide a €7bn bridging loan to avoid a default on Monday. In response, the Tsipras government has caved in over EU’s insistence on more austerity – tax up, pensions down. So Eurozone finance ministers have agreed to talk about an €86bn rescue package.
What does it all mean?
Continue reading Greece Again